BALPA or CAE? Who's right and what should you do?

So we've seen a couple of conflicting articles over the past week. BALPA, the union body that represents U.K. pilots urged people not to go into pilot training as people would end up with debts of over £100000 and not be able to pay it back. Meanwhile CAE, who are one of the world's largest training providers and simulator producers forecast that there would be a shortage of pilots in 2021 stating that 'the global civil aviation industry will still require an estimated 27,000 new pilots by the end of 2021, or 264,000 over the coming decade'. I've linked both articles here:

• BALPA's opinion
• CAE's opinion 

Let's start by looking at the vested interest of the people who wrote these articles. BALPA survive on pilot membership fees, but their sole purpose is to look after pilots both in and out of work. CAE are a multi-billion dollar public limited company who's sole business model is of the sale of simulators and the supply of flight training in 50 training centres around the world. It doesn't take genius to work out why we have such conflicting articles as BALPA's opinion would directly affect the future of CAE's profits. This is the first time in the decades of me following and being directly involved with this industry where I have seen a union publicly not recommend going into this profession, and that would only hurt BALPA's long term income, especially as their membership fees are based on % of salary, which are currently at historical lows.

It has been nothing but doom and gloom this year. A large portion of you reading this will have either lost your job, had a salary cut or you're in flight school and you're about to be added to the ever growing number of unemployed pilots. There's also going to be a number of you guys who are still thinking of becoming a pilot so what I write here is much more applicable to you.

Before I give my opinion, here are some job loss figures:

• British Airways: 270 pilots
• Virgin Atlantic: around 300 pilots
• Cathay Pacific/Dragon: 600 pilots (550 from the closure of Cathay Dragon)
• Norwegian: A large percentage of their OSM pilots (no official figures and they've just announced that they were not granted a bailout from the Norwegian government)
• Emirates: No official figures, however around one third of their previous 4300 pilots initially. Now some A380 pilots are being asked to take 12 months unpaid leave.
• Easyjet: 60 voluntary redundancies.

These are just a few approximate that I managed to pluck out and this doesn't include cabin crew or ground staff. Add to that the vast numbers of pilots who are on shit self-employed contracts and also redundancies from other regions. BALPA states that there are 10000 unemployed pilots in Europe, 1600 of which are from the U.K. We also have to consider that those who are lucky enough to still have a job are on hugely reduced terms. In Ryanair, almost all U.K. based Captains and First Officers are now on winter part time where their salary has been pro-rated. Meaning that, your salary is based on your number of productive days, so if you're only needed for 3-5 days a month, you're taking home the square root of fuck all. 

The other issue that you all need to consider though is how badly terms and conditions have eroded. Salaries in Europe have been stagnant over the last decade, but consider even the likes of BA who reduced their salaries after 9/11 and never recovered. Cathay Pacific have also been slowly reducing their terms, and in 2018 they introduced a pay scale that was weighted toward productivity. Oh and this year the majority of CX pilots accepted a 40-60% pay cut to save jobs. Add to that the 1000s of pilots in Europe who are on bogus self-employed contracts. I'd have to ask, is this really still worth investing £100000 of your hard earned/parent's money on? I know you're probably thinking "oh shut up, you're already a pilot so it's easy for you to say". No actually, it's never an easy thing to say. This is a fantastic job, but you're literally gambling life changing money on something that is in no way a guarantee or even going to get you a return on your investment. 

You're probably thinking 'oh well the market will recover and so will the salary', well okay let's explore this rabbit hole then. Salaries are based on a wide variety of factors; value, skill and supply are the ones that come to mind, but ultimately it's supply that determines the salary levels. Generally the highest paid people out there are executives, whether we like them or not, these guys earn billions. Seems unfair, but these people will generally be crazy enough to work 80 hour weeks and have a mind that no one else does. Look at Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos. But if lets say 1000 other entrepreneurs suddenly create other equally successful businesses, Tesla and Amazon would subsequently be worth less and therefore Elon and Jeff would earn less. You see here then that value doesn't necessarily equate to a high pay check, in the same way that having a fATPL doesn't guarantee you a high pay check, nor does it give you a job. Even when the job market is booming, no one is guaranteed anything, even if you finish from the best flight schools. Also, think of the many ex-Flybe, BMI, Monarch and Thomas Cook Captains with thousands of hours of PIC time who had to go back into First Officer jobs (and they were the lucky ones)

If we now consider how many pilots will actually be needed; according to some place online the average crewing ratio is 13 pilots per aircraft and according to statista in 2019 there were 25900 aircraft in the world, that means that we would need 336700 pilots to operate them and there were 315000 in the world in 2018. So if things were to return to pre-COVID levels, then we are indeed set up for a swing in the opposite direction. Generally things look good, but it's the time that's the issue. According to ECA (European Cockpit Association) 15000 pilots in Europe alone have either lost or have been threatened with redundancies, so there are a growing number of experienced pilots ahead of the fATPL queue.

As I write this, Pfizer have just announced that they are close to a break through vaccine that has a 90% success rate. Add to this the news that the U.K. is finally speeding up the adoption of airport COVID testing and we're onto the upside. Of course this is brilliant news, and we must rejoice as we can now go back to normality! Not so fast, this vaccine will realistically take time. The U.K. alone has secured 40 million doses so far and everyone needs two doses for it to be effective, the U.K. population is currently 68 million so that covers only less than a third and the first doses will go to frontline healthcare workers and the vulnerable. Distribution speeds will also vary depending on the country, and I'd imagine that there'd be a lot of politics and commercial interests involved that decide who gets it first. It's also going to take time to introduce testing into every airport. I also envisage that the vaccine will become a mandatory requirement for travel in some countries eventually. So give or take, I reckon optimistically all of that is at least a year or two away from things being implemented and we end up on the upswing.

So here we are then, should you become a pilot? I won't tell you to not become a pilot because I know what it feels like to get a raging boner every time I saw a plane, but the years of flying experience has taught me one thing, it's about having contingencies. No pilot will take off into a storm with no extra fuel, in the same way you shouldn't gamble all of your money on something that is fucking huge risk. So here are my suggestions:

Spend less time on social media - yes I know I'm on instagram, and I know that influencers have it as a great hobby that probably makes them more money than being a pilot does, good on them. But you as their followers need to look after your mental health and expectations. Before I got into flight training, aviation didn't have anywhere near the level of popularity on instagram as it does today. My only influence was from a couple of friends in the industry and just speaking to the pilots themselves to get an honest insight into the industry. Social media only tells you a small percentage of what the life of a pilot is like and It's not all happiness and positivity, it's okay to feel negative from time to time when you've got personal issues at home, that's what builds resilience.

DO NOT PAY MEMBERSHIP FOR ANY JOB WEBSITES - it pains me to see what some of you guys are going through now, what makes me really sick is how there are people out there charging for assessments and memberships for bullshit job websites or courses that somehow prepare you for an integrated course. Save your money. Careers advice should be free as it is on prospects. It's so sad how it's become the norm for people to pay to gain intellectual advantages and quite frankly it has to stop.

Do something else first - not permanently, but at least have another skill. Maybe a trade like plumbing, electrician or similar. Look for a job that is always in demand. Everyone needs someone to fix their pipes, or to crack open that fuse box. Always being in demand means that you can earn a good living and some of these trades are relatively inexpensive to get into. You could even start your own business and run it how you want. I once met a First Officer who opened a gift shop in Europe and saved enough after 3 years to fund his flight training.

You should know now that the aviation industry is about as stable as a relationship with a girl named Loraine, so you better have some sort of a financial safety net for when the next downturn appears. "But I don't want to be a plumber" listen, just because you're dreaming of becoming a pilot, doesn't make you special or better than anyone else. I've worked some fucking dogshit jobs for complete arseholes before, and I'm still prepared to work in McDonalds or as rubbish/trash collector if I have to, you should have the same mentality too. You'll also appreciate the job more when you get it. Also, I'd avoid going to university if they're still asking for over £9000 a year and forcing you to study from home and not even meet with teachers.

Integrated isn't the only way - yeah it's fastest way to become a pilot, but it isn't flexible, especially if you have a family or want to work and not be in debt (see the second suggestion) Do a modular course. You can fit this around your work schedules, it's far cheaper (around £40000) and you're also supporting smaller businesses. There's a good blog about the modular route here. If you take a trade or literally any other profession, you can be more flexible with training and follow what happens with the industry at the same time. Most importantly, you won't be left with a staggering level of debt. If you actually had £100000 in hand, imagine that you'd now be left with £60000 that you could actually invest somewhere else too.

'But CAE and L3 have links with airlines and airlines prefer integrated?' I can 100% tell you in all my years of working, around half of my colleagues did the modular route, and it's not like their abilities are any worse or better, that includes LTCs and TREs too. And really, is the extra £60000 worth it? More importantly, doesn't that say that there's something inherently wrong with the training system if you have to pay over £100000 to be able to get an interview over someone who may not have been lucky enough to gain access to the bank of mum and dad, or just wanted to be sensible with their money? That really does show how far this industry has stretched to really screw us. You could help turn this tide by going modular and simply saying no to these snakes that are trying to monetize everything that's attached to aviation.

'It's not all about the money, you're still well paid'. We're constantly reminded of how lucky we are to be doing this job and how well paid we are for supposedly sitting down and doing nothing after we hit CMD A or B. Well we should be well paid. If you as an individual are willing to invest a lifechanging amount of money, give up two years of your life, then give up an extra £20000-£30000 for a type rating for a job where you are literally trusted with the lives of hundreds of people every day, then a starting salary of £30000-£40000 a year is an absolute insult, and that's for a narrow body jet job, which is also a pre-COVID-19 figure and doesn't include flight/duty pay, so you can subtract around 60-70% from that amount.  Yes you do have some fantastic times but we also have to put up with our fair share shit working hours and time away from home. Becoming a pilot doesn't make you less human, you will still live through life with the same personal problems that a 9-5 office worker will, only you will have the added physical stresses of the unsociable working hours and potentially awful commutes. You might now tell me that 'pilots need a lot of resilience, just man up', yeah okay mate, if you've suddenly had a personal problem with your husband or wife or someone close to you dies, you still need to be on your A-game, try telling a self-employed pilot who only earns as they go to just stay at home if they're feeling a bit stressed. We go through some of the most rigorous checks of any job in the simulator and the aircraft, and we're also expected to make life or death decisions in the blink of an eye when we are faced with unprecedented shit weather conditions in and out of challenging airports. Trust me, when you're tired and you're flying 900 hours a year, you're bound to fuck up at some point. So no, I don't think we're paid enough. The remuneration packages are a shadow of what they once were, and while the massive flight training organisations have a stranglehold over the training environment, things will stay that way. I've written a letter to my MP, and hoping that you guys do too, but ultimately the market forces dictate where these businesses go, and unless we as individuals make rational and informed decisions, then things will continue to get worse.

I still love this job, but I've had to be realistic about the future of this industry. I've had to take up second and third jobs as well during this god awful time. Whilst I'm confident that this industry will recover, no one can say what it will look like in the next few years. What we can assume, is that we'll be left with only a few large airlines, and that means less competition. This is great for the airlines but it's shit for us as there will be less job opportunities for an increasing supply of pilots, therefore there will be a reduction in our terms and conditions. This is why me and many other colleagues of mine are either reconsidering our careers or at least trying to learn another skill. Being optimistic makes you feel better about yourself, and it might get you a few more likes on your instagram posts, but ultimately this industry has been on a downward direction even before COVID-19 and being optimistic does fuck all to turn that around.

If you want in on this crazy career then do it the sensible way. Jumping at a £100000 flight school isn't the only option out there, look at the other routes and you may just help towards making your conditions better in the long run for if you do get that first flying job.